The impact of climate change on China's central region grain production: evidence from spatiotemporal pattern evolution

作者：Hongtao Wang, Jiajun Xu, Noor Hashimah Hashim Lim, Wanying Liao, Chng Saun Fong · 发表于：AIMS Geosciences · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3934/geosci.2024024 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Spatial and Panel Data Analysis、Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis

Under the influence of global climate change, the climatic conditions of China's major agricultural regions have changed significantly over the last half-century, affecting regional grain production levels. With its favorable conditions for agricultural activities, China's central region has been a strategic location for grain production since ancient times and has assumed an essential responsibility for maintaining national grain security. However, the key concerns of this study are whether the national grain security pattern is stable and whether it might be affected by global climate change (especially climate instability and increased risks in recent years). Therefore, the present study collected grain production data and used descriptive statistical and geospatial analyses to reveal the trend and spatiotemporal pattern of grain production in China's central region from 2010 to 2020. Then, a further analysis was conducted by combining meteorological data with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to investigate the relationship between spatial differences in the output per unit of the grain sown area (OPUGSA). The findings were as follows: (1) The overall development trend of grain production in China's central region from 2010 to 2020 revealed a positive overall trend in grain production, with notable differences in growth rates between northern and southern provinces. (2) Most regions in the southern part of the central region from 2015 to 2020 showed varying...