A prognostic model for use before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (GSU-Pulmonary Score): a development and validation study in three international cohorts

作者：Laura Bravo, Joana F F Simoes, Victor Roth Cardoso, Adewale Adisa, María Lorena Aguilera, Alexis Arnaud, Bruce Biccard, Jose Andrés Calvache, Saisakul Chernbumroong, Muhammed Elhadi, Dhruv Ghosh, Rohan R Gujjuri, Ewen Harrison, Michael Ho, Veerappan Kasivisvanathan, Omar Kouli, Hans Lederhuber, Elizabeth Li, Markus Löffler, Arda Isik, Hani J. Marcus, Janet Martin, Kenneth A McLean, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, María Marta Modolo, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Gianluca Pellino, Maria Picciochi, Peter Pockney, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Aya Riad, Raza Sayyed, Malin Sund, Georgios V. Gkoutos, Aneel Bhangu, James C Glasbey, Laura Bravo, Vasco Cardoso, James Glasbey, S Chernbumroong, Dmitri Nepogodiev, JFF Simoes, Kenneth A McLean, Aneel Bhangu, Georgios V. Gkoutos, Bryar Kadir, Othman Omar, Elliot John Revell, Michael Bahrami‐Hessari, Waheed‐Ul‐Rahman Ahmed, Leah Argus, Alasdair Ball, Aneel Bhangu, Edward Bywater, Ruth Blanco-Colino, Amanpreet Brar, Daoud Chaudhry, Brett E Dawson, Irani Duran, Muhammed Elhadi, James C Glasbey, Rohan R Gujjuri, Conor S Jones, Ewen M. Harrison, Sivesh K Kamarajah, James M Keatley, Samuel Lawday, Elizabeth Li, Harvinder Mann, Ella J Marson, Kenneth A McLean, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Lisa Norman, Riinu Ots, Oumaima Outani, Maria Picciochi, Irène Santos, Caitlin Shaw, Elliott H Taylor, Isobel M Trout, Chris Varghese, Mary L Venn, William Xu, Irida Dajti, Arben Gjata, Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi, Luis Boccalatte, Daniel Cox, Peter Pockney, Felix Aigner, Irmgard Kronberger, Elgun Samadov, Amer Alderazi, Greg Padmore, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Ismaïl Lawani, Anis Cerovac, Samir Delibegović, Glauco Baiocchi, Gustavo Mendonça Ataíde Gomes, Igor Lima Buarque, Muhammad Gohar, Mihail Slavchev, Chukwuemeka Nwegbu, Arnav Agarwal, Amanpreet Brar, Janet Martin, Joshua S Ng-Kamstra, Maricarmen Olivos, Wenhui Lou, Donglin Ren, Jose Andres Calvache, Carlos J. Pérez-Rivera, Ana Đanić Hadžibegović, Tomislav Kopjar, Jakov Mihanović, Pablo Mijahil Avilés Jiménez, Nikolaos Gouvas, Jaroslav Klát, René Novysedlák, Nicolas Amisi, Peter Christensen, Alaa El‐Hussuna, Sylvia Batista, Eddy Lincango-Naranjo, Sameh Hany Emile, Danilo Alfonso Arévalo Sandoval, Hailu Tamiru Dhufera, Samuel Hailu, Mengistu G Mengesha, Joonas H. Kauppila, Alexis Arnaud, Zaza Demetrashvili, Markus Albertsmeier, Hans Lederhuber, Markus Löffler, Daniel Kwesi Acquah, Bernard Ofori, Stephen Tabiri, Symeon Metallidis, Georgios Tsoulfas, Maria‐Lorena Aguilera‐Arevalo, Gustavo Recinos, Tamás Mersich, Dániel Wettstein, Dhruva Ghosh, Gabriele Kembuan, Peiman Brouki Milan, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Masoud Mozafari, Ahmed Hilmi, Helen Mohan, Oded Zmora, Gaetano Gallo, Francesco Pata, Gianluca Pellino, Yuki Fujimoto, Naoto Kuroda, Sohei Satoi, Mohamad K. Abou Chaar, Faris Ayasra, Ildar Fakhradiyev, Intisar Hisham Said Hamdun, Jang Jin-Young, Mohammad H. Jamal, Lina Karout, Muhammed Elhadi, Aistė Gulla, Fanjandrainy Rasoaherinomenjanahary, Luc Hervé Samison, April Camilla Roslani, Irán Irani Durán Sánchez, Diana Samantha Gonzalez, Laura Martínez, María José Martínez, Alejandra Nayen, Antonio Ramos‐De la Medina, Jade Nunez, Oumaima Outani, Pueya Rashid Nashidengo, Ashish Lal Shrestha, Pascal Jonker, Schelto Kruijff, Milou Noltes, Pieter J. Steinkamp, Chris Varghese, Deborah Wright, LO Abdur-Rahman, Adesoji Ademuyiwa, Adewale Adisa, Babatunde Osinaike, Justina O. Seyi‐Olajide, Omolara Williams, Emmanuel Williams, Sofija Pejkova, Zainab Al Balushi, Ahmad Uzair Qureshi, Raza Sayyed, Mohamed Mohsen, Sadi A. Abukhalaf, Moisés Cukier, Hugo Gomez-Fernandez, Sebastian Shu Yip, Ximena Paola Vasquez Ojeda, Marie Dione Sacdalan, Piotr Major, José Azevedo, Miguel F. Cunha, Ahmad Zarour, Eduard-Alexandru Bonci, Ionut Negoi, Sergey Efetov, V. S. Kochetkov, Andrey Litvin, JC Allen Ingabire, Georges Bucyibaruta, Faustin Ntirenganya, Sosthene Habumuremyi, Alphonsine Imanishimwe, Hôtel Dieu, Emmanuel Munyaneza, Isaie Ncogoza, Ehab Alameer, Abdourahmane Ndong, Dejan Radenković, Min Hoe Chew, Frederick H. Koh, James Chi‐Yong Ngu, Arpád Panyko, Uroš Bele, Jurij Aleš Košir, H. Daoud, Ruth Blanco‐Colino, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Umesh Jayarajah, Dakshitha Wickramasinghe, Mohammed Elmujtba Adam Essa Adam, Martin Rutegård, Malin Sund, Michel Adamina, Eleftherios Gialamas, Karoline Horisberger, Muhammad Alshaar, Varut Lohsiriwat, Shane Charles, Arda Isik, Sezai Leventoğlu, Hervé Monka Lekuya, Herman Lule, Slava Kopetskyi, Hayder Alsaadi, Sattar Alshryda, Osaid Alser, Brittany Bankhead-Kendall, Kerry Breen, Haytham M.A. Kaafarani, Hassan Mashbari, Fernando Bonilla Cal, Hamza Al-Naggar, Mayaba Maimbo, Dennis Mazingi, Tom Abbott, Michel Adamina, Melika Akhbari, Shivam Bhanderi, Bruce Biccard, Sohini Chakrabortee, Ainhoa Costas‐Chavarri, Andreas K Demetriades, Anant Desai, Salomone Di Saverio, Thomas Drake, John Edwards, Jonathan Evans, Marco Fiore, Samuel Ford, Christina Fotopoulou, Alexander J. Fowler, Kaori Futaba, Ian Ganly, Harelimana Grace James, Ewen A. Griffiths, Peter J. Hutchinson, Gabriella Hyman, Joseph Incorvia, Ritu Jain, Michael D. Jenkinson, Tabassum Khan, Stephen R Knight, Angelos Kolias, Søren Kudsk‐Iversen, Tsun Yu Kwan, Elaine Leung, Julio Mayol, Siobhan McKay, John G. Meara, Emily Mills, Susan Moug, Akshay Patel, Roberto Perinotti, Henry E. Rice, Keith Roberts, Andrew Schache, Richard Shaw, Neil Smart, Matthew Stephens, Grant D. Stewart, Ella Teasdale, Raghavan Vidya, Naomi Wright, Funmilola Wuraola, Ervis Agastra, Dariel Thereska, Irida Dajti, Sergio Martin Lucchini, Verónica Laudani, Luis Boccalatte, Carina Chwat, Ivana Ines Pedraza Salazar, Diana Alejandra Pantoja Pachajoa, Agustín Duro, José Alfredo Calderón Arancibia, T Bright, Paul Hollington, Xuanyu Zhou, Hidde M. Kroon, Anthony Farfus, John Barker, Eleanor G. R. Watson, Sean Stevens, Haider Latif, Amanda Caroline Dawson, Alwin Chuan, Vijayaragavan Muralidharan, Enoch Wong, Travis Ackermann, Maurizio Pacilli, Russell Hodgson, Alexander Heriot, Peter Choong, Wendy A. Brown, Surjit Lidder, Justin M Yeung, Luke Traeger, Guillermo Regalo, Ralph Gourlay, Peter Pockney, Sarit Badiani, Cherry Koh, Soni Putnis, Fayza Haider, Ashrarur Rahman Mitul, Niels Komen, Bert Dhondt, Serge Cappeliez, Manon Pigeolet, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Martijn Schoneveld, Jasper Stijns, Wouter Oosterlinck, Nicolas Flamey, Cyrille Kpangon, Mouhamed Agbadebo, Sèmèvo Romaric Tobome, Ismaïl Lawani, Anis Cerovac, Aldo Vieira Barros, Samuel Aguiar, Glauco Baiocchi, Heloisa Galvão do Amaral Campos, Jefferson Luiz Gross, Felipe José Fernández Coimbra, Luiz Paulo Kowalski, Fabiana Makdissi, Suely Akiko Nakagawa, João Pedreira Duprat Neto, José Guilherme Vartanian, Guilherme Yazbek, Stenio C Zequi, Ronald LG Flumignan, Mihail Slavchev, Natalia Jaworska, Angela Dell, Harsha Shanthanna, Janet Martin, Abdollah Behzadi, Carolyn Nessim, Michelle Mozel, Pascal St-germain, Crispin Russell, Gary Groot, Najib Safieddine, Duminda Wijeysundera, Antoine Eskander, Sami A. Chadi, Shawn MacKenzie, Fernando Martínez Heredia, Julio Villanueva, Sofia Waissbluth, Roberto Macchiavello, Mario I. Escudero, T. Fuentes, Ximena Mimica, Maricarmen Olivos, Daniel Sáenz, Lina Caicedo, Juan Pablo Álzate, Joaquín Luna, Nestor Fabian Pedraza Alonso, Camilo Ortiz Silva, Carlos J. Pérez-Rivera, Juliana Rodríguez, Liliana Silva-Igua, Martha Luz Torres, Lina María Trujillo, Albaro José Nieto‐Calvache, Julián Balanta-Melo, R. Casanova, Oscar-Julián García-Montoya, Carlos Andres Marulanda Toro, María Clara Mendoza Arango, E. Roa Martínez, Vivian Andrea Perdomo, Jose Andres Calvache, Emileth Montenegro, Jakov Mihanović, Pablo Mijahil Avilés Jiménez, Nikolaos Gouvas, René Novysedlák, Julia Rodríguez-Abreu, Eddy Lincango-Naranjo, Galal Abouelnagah, Sameh Shehata, Ahmed Hossam Eldin Fouad Rida, Ramy A. Hassan, Mahmoud Saad, Mohamed Reda loaloa, Badr Eldin Mostafa, Mohamed Qassem, Mohamed S. Fahmy, Hesham Abozied, Ahmed Y. 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Bhat, Sunil Kumar Venkatappa, Sumit Thakar, Kavitha Jain, Aruna Kumar, Manoj Nagar, Tushar Subhadarshan Mishra, Arunkumar Sekar, Anand Gupta, Lileswar Kaman, Madhivanan Karthigeyan, Manjul Tripathi, Ashwin Rammohan, Sudheer Othiyil Vayoth, Anupama Rajanbabu, Anbukkani Subbian, Rahul Gupta, Monish S. Raut, Nissi Evelyn. R, Lavanya Kannaiyan, A Matai, Sanjeev Misra, Vishal V Bhende, Sathish Muthu, Indranil Ghosh, Abhishek Sharma, Ankur Bajaj, Shiv Rajan, Gaurav Agarwal, Pranay Pawar, Philip Alexander, M. Vijayakumar, B. M. Zeeshan Hameed, L Badareesh, Navneet Kumar Chaudhry, Lipika Baliarsing, Satish Dharap, Amruta Kulkarni, Yuvaraja Thyavihally, C.S. Pramesh, Rajesh Soni, Surya Kumar Dube, Shilpa Sharma, Harvinder Singh, Lovenish Bains, Rahul Ghodke, Vinod Kumar, Vivek Sodhai, Suvendu Maji, Somprakas Basu, Chandrashekhar Mahakalkar, Ravi Kannan, Asif Mehraj, N Ranganath, Ashish Phadnis, Induprabha Yadev, Alfie J. 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Zahid, Haroon Javaid Majid, Nabila Talat, Muhammad Asif, Muhammad Chaudhary, Umer Farooq, Siddique Ahmad, Waleed Mabood, Syed Imran Bukhari, Muhammad Tariq, Eesha Yaqoob, Saad Javed, Muhammad Usman Malik, Hassan Yaqoob, Moisés Cukier, Glenda Marina Falcon Pacheco, Robinson Mas Melendez, Arazzelly Del Pilar Paucar Urbina, José Ríos Chiuyari, Carlos Eduardo Otiniano Alvarado, Lorena Fuentes Rivera Lau, Giuliano Borda‐Luque, Milagros Niquen-Jimenez, Claudia Arias, Sergio Zegarra, Jenner Betalleluz Pallardel, Regina Amparo Ugarte Oscco, Gian Mendiola, Yahaira Tatiana Carpio Colmenares, Carlos Javier Shiraishi Zapata, María Ortiz, Marie Dione Sacdalan, Piotr Major, Filipe Castro Borges, Octavio Viveiros, Pedro Serralheiro, Paulo Santos-Costa, F Mendes, Miguel Rocha Melo, P Cardoso, Ana Cibelli Nogueira Soares, José Azevedo, Rita Gonçalves Pereira, Nelson Silva, André Caiado, Maria Luís Sacras, Pedro Azevedo, R Almeida-Reis, Miguel F. 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Ikeda, S Kuzuhara, Naoya Yamamoto, Mari Yamamoto, Toshiya Yokota, Yuki Yoshioka, Akira Kawai, Yoshinori Nakata, Shigehito Sawamura, Takayuki Kobayashi, Majdi Ali Alqudah, Mera Alrabadi, Qais Owais, Aseel Smadi, Huthifa Abunawas, Mohammad Alhawatmeh, Abdel Rahman Mohannad Ahmad Alwardat, Slsabela Dhoon, Enas Jaradat, Teeba Mubaydeen, Sayel H. Alzraikat, Rand Y. Omari, Haya H. 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Rodríguez-López, Alejandro Romero, Ana Belén García Ruano, C Sánchez Torralvo, Andrea Vazquez Fernandez, Eduardo Velasco García, Álvaro Zamora Horcajada, F Acebes García, E. Asensio Díaz, Fernando Labarga Rodríguez, David Pacheco, B. Pérez-Saborido, Pilar Pinto, Vicente Simó, Francisco J Tejero-Pintor, R. Velasco Lopez, Sandra Veleda Belanche, Marc Vallve‐Bernal, Maria Balluerca, David García‐García, María Sánchez-Rubio, E Rocha Casas, David Lafuente, Ismael Gil Romea, Isabel Valero Lázaro, Esmeralda Carnicer Escusol, Guillermo Pola Bandres, I Talal El-Abur, Carlos Yáñez, Victoria Duque Mallén, C Gracia-Roche, Úrsula María Jariod Ferrer, María Victoria Simón Sanz, T Uson, Waseem Ahamed, Pirashanthan Nagarasa, Kanapathipillai Piratheep, V S Rodrigo, Arulprashanth Arulanantham, Koculen Vimaleswaran, Probhodana Ranaweera, Dharmabandhu Nandadeva Samarasekera, Sanjeewa Seneviratne, Lanka Dasanayake, Dj Wickramasooriya, Kugarajh Ganeshapillai, Athula Kaluarachchi, Abubakr Abubakr, Hozifa Mohamed, Mogahid Sharfeldein, Samir Ismail, Eman Adam Abdalla, Mohamad Abdelbagi, Alsafe Adlan, Khalid Ahmed, Yasir Om Awad, Samwal Eldirdiri, Lul Mohamud Mohamed, Abdulmalek Aljafari, Abubakr Ali M Humidan, Albrra Alhag Mohamed Alhag, I Bakheit, Wael Shaban, Nidhal Siddig, Omer Abbas, ElTahir Abdelrahim, Ali Mohamed, Malaz Amir Ataalmanan, Tebyan Amir AtaAlmanan, Alkhansa Osman, Amna Osman, Abdelkareem A. Ahmed, Mohamed El-Jack, M Ali, Khadija Ala Abdalmaqsud Muhmmed, Osman Bashir, Linas Pieteris, Yousif Saeed, Karin Karlsson, Michelle S. Chew, Carina Jönsson, Anna Oscarsson, Arvid Pourlotfi, Malin Simlund, Rebecka Hultgren, Boel Hynning, Ernesto Sparrelid, Clara Svenberg Lind, Jeremy Wales, Emil Pieniowski, Robert Zürner, Otto Kollmar, Barbara E. Wildhaber, Markus Gass, P Ricciardi, Morena Antonilli, Dimitrios Christoforidis, Maria Luisa Gasparri, Francesco Mongelli, Christian Gingert, Daniel Schöni, F Solimene, Dániel Gerö, Andreas Thalheimer, Ahmad Hmaideh, Alaa Kour, Omar Alannaz, Ramez KH Aljasem, Mosaad Alhussein · 发表于：The Lancet Digital Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2589-7500(24)00065-7 · 被引用次数：21 · 研究领域：Respiratory Support and Mechanisms、COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary complications are the most common cause of death after surgery. This study aimed to derive and externally validate a novel prognostic model that can be used before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications and to support resource allocation and prioritisation during pandemic recovery. METHODS: Data from an international, prospective cohort study were used to develop a novel prognostic risk model for pulmonary complications after elective surgery in adult patients (aged ≥18 years) across all operation and disease types. The primary outcome measure was postoperative pulmonary complications at 30 days after surgery, which was a composite of pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unexpected mechanical ventilation. Model development with candidate predictor variables was done in the GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week dataset (global; October, 2020). Two structured machine learning techniques were explored (XGBoost and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO]), and the model with the best performance (GSU-Pulmonary Score) underwent internal validation using bootstrap resampling. The discrimination and calibration of the score were externally validated in two further prospective cohorts: CovidSurg-Cancer (worldwide; February to August, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic) and RECON (UK and Australasia; January to October, 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic). The model was deployed as an online web appli...