65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau

作者：Yiping Chen, Kaibo Wang, Bojie Fu, Yanfen Wang, Han‐Wen Tian, Yi Wang, Yi Zhang · 发表于：Environmental Science and Ecotechnology · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ese.2024.100442 · 被引用次数：61 · 研究领域：Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Fire effects on ecosystems

Loess Plateau (LP) is a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Similar regions cover ∼41% of the Earth, and its soils are some of the most severely eroded anywhere in the world. It is very important to understand the vegetation change and its ecological threshold under climate change on the LP for the sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. However, little is known about how vegetation on the LP will respond to climate change and what is the sustainable threshold level of vegetation cover on the LP. Here we show that the temperature on the LP has risen 0.27 °C per decade over the past 50 years, a rate that is 30% higher than the average warming rate across China. During historical times, vegetation change was regulated by environmental factors and anthropogenic activities. Vegetation coverage was about 53% on the LP from the Xia Dynasty to the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period. Over the past 70 years, however, the environment has gradually improved and the vegetation cover had increased to ∼65% by 2021. We forecast future changes of vegetation cover on the LP in 2030s, in 2050s and in 2070s using SDM (Species Distribution Model) under Low-emission scenarios, Medium-emission scenarios and High-emission scenarios. An average value of vegetation cover under the three emission scenarios will be 64.67%, 62.70% and 61.47%, respectively. According to the historical record and SDM forecasts, the threshold level of vegetation cover on the LP is estimated to b...