Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020–2040

作者：Yi Gong, Qin Li Jiang, Mimi Zhai, Tenglong Tang, Sushun Liu · 发表于：Journal of Global Health · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.7189/jogh.14.04131 · 被引用次数：85 · 研究领域：Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment、Thyroid Disorders and Treatments、Global Cancer Incidence and Screening

Background: Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades. Methods: This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040. Results: From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged...