Updated Estimate of the Number of Extreme Risk Protection Orders Needed to Prevent 1 Suicide

作者：Matthew Q. Miller, Yifan Zhang, David M. Studdert, Sonja A. Swanson · 发表于：JAMA Network Open · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.14864 · 被引用次数：21 · 研究领域：Gun Ownership and Violence Research、Traumatic Ocular and Foreign Body Injuries、Suicide and Self-Harm Studies

Importance: Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs)-also known as red flag, risk warrant, and gun violence restraining orders-authorize law enforcement, family members, and sometimes others to petition a court to remove firearms from and prevent the acquisition of new firearms by a person judged to pose an immediate danger to themselves or others. Previous estimates suggest that 1 suicide is prevented for every 10 ERPOs issued, a number needed to treat that depends critically on the counterfactual estimate of the proportion of suicidal acts by ERPO respondents that would have involved firearms in the absence of ERPOs. Objective: To empirically inform updated estimates of the number of ERPOs needed to prevent 1 suicide. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from California for method-specific suicides by handgun ownership (October 18, 2004, to December 31, 2015). Handgun-owning suicide decedents in California were identified using individual-level registry data about lawful handgun ownership linked to cause-specific mortality for a cohort of more than 25 million adults. The study also used data from Connecticut for method-specific suicides among ERPO respondents who died by suicide, extracted from published data (October 1999 to June 2013). Data analysis was performed in December 2023. Exposure: Handgun ownership. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the number and distribution of suicidal acts by handgun owners in California, estimated...