The Significance of Interseismic Vertical Land Movement at Convergent Plate Boundaries in Probabilistic Sea‐Level Projections for AR6 Scenarios: The New Zealand Case

作者：T. Naish, Richard Levy, Ian Hamling, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir, Praveen Kumar, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Nicholas R. Golledge, Robert G. Bell, Ryan Paulik, Judy Lawrence, Paul Denys, Tasman Gillies, Shannon A. Bengtson, Andrew Howell, Kate Clark, Daniel J. King, Nicola Litchfield, Rewi M. Newnham · 发表于：Earth s Future · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1029/2023ef004165 · 被引用次数：30 · 研究领域：Geophysics and Gravity Measurements、Coastal and Marine Dynamics、earthquake and tectonic studies

Abstract Anticipating and managing the impacts of sea‐level rise for nations astride active tectonic margins requires understanding of rates of sea surface elevation change in relation to coastal land elevation. Vertical land motion (VLM) can either exacerbate or reduce sea‐level changes with impacts varying significantly along a coastline. Determining rate, pattern, and variability of VLM near coasts leads to a direct improvement of location‐specific relative sea level (RSL) estimates for coastal hazard risk assessment. Here, we utilize vertical velocity field from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data, calibrated with campaign and continuous Global Navigation Satellite System data, to determine the VLM for the entire coastline of New Zealand. Guided by available knowledge of the seismic cycle, the VLM data infer secular, interseismic rates of land surface deformation. Using the Framework for Assessing Changes to Sea‐level (FACTS), we build probabilistic RSL projections using the same emissions scenarios employed in IPCC Assessment Report 6 and local VLM data at 8,179 sites, thereby enhancing spatial coverage that was previously limited to four tide gauges. We present ensembles of probability distributions of RSL for each scenario to 2150, and for low confidence sea‐level processes to 2300. Where land subsidence is occurring at rates >2 mm/y VLM makes a significant contribution to RSL projections for all scenarios out to 2150. Our approach can be applied t...