Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security

作者：Abdoulaye Sarré, Hervé Demarcq, Noel Sebastian Keenlyside, Jens‐Otto Krakstad, Salaheddine El Ayoubi, Ahmed Mohamed JEYID, Saliou Faye, Adama Mbaye, Momodou Sidibeh, Patrice Brehmer · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-024-61734-8 · 被引用次数：44 · 研究领域：Marine and fisheries research、Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies、Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited s...