Patterns of changing surface climate variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to present in transient model simulations

作者：Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean‐Philippe Baudouin, Marie‐Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, Kira Rehfeld · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.5194/egusphere-2024-1396 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Geology and Paleoclimatology Research、Climate variability and models、Cryospheric studies and observations

Abstract. As of 2023, global mean temperature has risen by about 1.45 ± 0.12 °C with respect to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline according to the World Meteorological Organization. This rise constitutes the first period of substantial global warming since the Last Deglaciation, when global temperatures rose over several millennia by about 4.0–7.0 °C according to proxy reconstructions. Similar levels of warming could be reached in the coming centuries considering current and possible future emissions. Such warming causes widespread changes in the climate system of which the mean state provides only an incomplete picture. Indeed, climate’s variability and the distributions of climate variables change with warming, impacting for example ecosystems and the frequency and intensity of extremes. However, climate variability during transition periods like the Last Deglaciation remains largely unexplored. Therefore, we investigate changes of climate variability on annual to millennial timescales in fifteen transient climate model simulations of the Last Deglaciation. This ensemble consists of models of varying complexity, from an energy balance model to Earth System Models and includes sensitivity experiments, which differ only in terms of their underlying ice sheet reconstruction, meltwater protocol, or consideration of volcanic forcing. While the ensemble simulates an increase of global mean temperature of 3.0–6.6 °C between the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene, we examine whe...