Agricultural drought-driven mechanism of coupled climate and human activities in the karst basin of southern China

作者：Shan Pan, Zhonghua He, Xiaolin Gu, Mingjin Xu, Li‐Hui Chen, Shuping Yang, Hongmei Tan · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-024-62027-w · 被引用次数：21 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Timely and accurate agricultural drought monitoring and drought-driven mechanism analysis in karst basins in the context of global warming are highly important for drought disaster monitoring and sustainable ecological development in a basin. In this study, based on MODIS data, meteorological and topographic data and land use data from 2001 to 2020, we used the Sen slope, the Mann-Kendall test and a geographic detector to explore the driving mechanisms of agricultural drought caused by climate change and human activities in the karst basin of southern China from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of the TVDI in the karst basin in southern China has obvious regional characteristics, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. (2) According to the interannual trend of drought, the degree of drought in the South China karst basin exhibited a weakening trend over the last 20 years, with the most severe drought occurring in 2003. Regarding the seasonal change in the TVDI, drought in spring, summer and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend, while that in winter exhibited an increasing trend, and the drought intensity decreased in the following order: spring (0.58) > autumn (0.53) > summer (0.5) > winter (0.48). (3) Single-factor detection the results showed that rainfall, temperature and elevation were the main factors driving aridification in the study area; multifactor coupling (mean) drove drought in descending order: rainfall (q = 0.424) > temper...