Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks

作者：Dag O. Hessen, Tom Andersen, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sarian Kosten, Mariana Meerhoff, Amy Pickard, Bryan M. Spears · 发表于：Earth System Dynamics · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.5194/esd-15-653-2024 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics、Marine and coastal ecosystems、Geology and Paleoclimatology Research

Abstract. Lakes and ponds experience anthropogenically forced changes that may be non-linear and sometimes initiate ecosystem feedbacks leading to tipping points beyond which impacts become hard to reverse. In many cases climate change is a key driver, sometimes in concert with other stressors. Lakes are also important players in the global climate by ventilating a large share of terrestrial carbon (C) back to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases and will likely provide substantial feedbacks to climate change. In this paper we address various major changes in lake ecosystems and discuss if tipping points can be identified, predicted, or prevented, as well as the drivers and feedbacks associated with climate change. We focus on potential large-scale effects with regional or widespread impacts, such as eutrophication-driven anoxia and internal phosphorus (P) loading, increased loading of organic matter from terrestrial to lake ecosystems (lake “browning”), lake formation or disappearance in response to cryosphere shifts or changes in precipitation to evaporation ratios, switching from nitrogen to phosphorus limitation, salinization, and the spread of invasive species where threshold-type shifts occur. We identify systems and drivers that could lead to self-sustaining feedbacks, abrupt changes, and some degree of resilience, as opposed to binary states not subject to self-propelling changes or resilience. Changes driven by warming, browning, and eutrophication can cause increased ...