The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases

作者：Rory Gibb, Sadie J. Ryan, David M. Pigott, María del Pilar Fernández, Renata L. Muylaert, Gregory F. Albery, Daniel J. Becker, Jason K. Blackburn, Hernán Cáceres-Escobar, Michael Celone, Evan A. Eskew, Hannah K. Frank, Barbara A. Han, Erin Hulland, Kate E. Jones, Rebecca Katz, Adam Kucharski, Direk Limmathurotsakul, Catherine A. Lippi, Joshua Longbottom, Juan Fernando Martinez, Jane P. Messina, Elaine O. Nsoesie, David W. Redding, Daniel Romero-Álvarez, Boris V. Schmid, Stephanie N. Seifert, Anabel Sinchi, Christopher H. Trisos, Michelle Wille, Colin J. Carlson · 发表于：medRxiv · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1101/2024.05.22.24307684 · 被引用次数：27 · 研究领域：Zoonotic diseases and public health

Abstract Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly understood as a hallmark of the Anthropocene 1–3 . Most experts agree that anthropogenic ecosystem change and high-risk contact among people, livestock, and wildlife have contributed to the recent emergence of new zoonotic, vector-borne, and environmentally-transmitted pathogens 1,4–6 . However, the extent to which these factors also structure landscapes of human infection and outbreak risk is not well understood, beyond certain well-studied disease systems 7–9 . Here, we consolidate 58,319 unique records of outbreak events for 32 emerging infectious diseases worldwide, and systematically test the influence of 16 hypothesized social and environmental drivers on the geography of outbreak risk, while adjusting for multiple detection, reporting, and research biases. Across diseases, outbreak risks are widely associated with mosaic landscapes where people live alongside forests and fragmented ecosystems, and are commonly exacerbated by long-term decreases in precipitation. The combined effects of these drivers are particularly strong for vector-borne diseases (e.g., Lyme disease and dengue fever), underscoring that policy strategies to manage these emerging risks will need to address land use and climate change 10–12 . In contrast, we find little evidence that spillovers of directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases (e.g., Ebola virus disease and mpox) are consistently associated with these factors, or with other anthropogenic dr...