Prediction of new vertebral compression fracture within 3 years after percutaneous vertebroplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture: Establishment and validation of a nomogram prediction model

作者：Mingxi Nie, Zefu Chen, Liang Shi, Hongxia Cao, Lei Xu · 发表于：PLoS ONE · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pone.0303385 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Spinal Fractures and Fixation Techniques、Spine and Intervertebral Disc Pathology、Pelvic and Acetabular Injuries

New vertebral compression fractures (NVCF) are common in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF) who have undergone percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP). We sought to develop a nomogram prediction model for better identification and prevention of NVCF within 3 years after PVP in patients with OVCF. The demographic, clinical, and imaging data of patients who underwent PVP for OVCF between January 2010 and December 2019 were reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for NVCF within 3 years after PVP. A nomogram prediction model was then developed and validated to visually predict NVCF. The samples in the model were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Twenty-seven percent of patients experienced NVCF in other segments within 3 years after PVP. Older age, lower bone mineral density (BMD), smoking, lack of anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative trauma were risk factors for NVCF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve suggested good discrimination of this model: training set (0.781, 95% confidence interval: 0.731-0.831) and validation set (0.786, 95% confidence interval: 0.708-0.863). The calibration curve suggested good prediction accuracy between the actual and predicted probabilities in the training and validation sets. The DCA results suggested that, when the probability thresholds were 0.0452-08394 and 0.0336-0.7262 in the training and validation set...