Soil and climate‐dependent ingrowth inference: broadleaves on their slow way to conquer Swiss forests

作者：Roman Flury, Jeanne Portier, Brigitte Rohner, Andri Baltensweiler, Katrin Meusburger, Daniel Scherrer, Esther Thürig, Golo Stadelmann · 发表于：Ecography · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1111/ecog.07174 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Forest ecology and management、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Forest Management and Policy

Forests provide essential ecosystem services that range from the production of timber to the mitigation of natural hazards. Rapid environmental changes, such as climate warming or the intensification of disturbance regimes, threaten forests and endanger forest ecosystem services. In light of these challenges, it is essential to understand forests' demographic processes of regeneration, growth, and mortality and their relationship with environmental conditions. Specifically, understanding the regeneration process in present‐day forests is crucial since it lays the foundation for the structure of future forests and their tree species composition. We used Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) data covering vast bio‐geographic gradients over four decades to achieve this understanding. Trees that reached a diameter at breast height of 12 cm between two consecutive NFI campaigns were used to determine regeneration and were referred to as ingrowth. Employing three independent statistical models, we investigated the number, species, and diameter of these ingrowth trees. The models were subsequently implemented into a forest simulator to project the development of Swiss forests until the mid‐21st century. The simulation results showed an ingrowth decrease and a shift in its species composition, marked by a significant reduction in Norway spruce Picea abies and concurrent increases in broadleaves. Nevertheless, the pace of this change towards climatically better adapted species composi...