Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study

作者：Qi Zhao, Shanshan Li, Tingting Ye, Yao Wu, Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Aleš Urban, Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera, Aurelio Tobı́as, Ben Armstrong, Dominic Royé, Éric Lavigne, Francesca de’Donato, Francesco Sera, Haidong Kan, Joel Schwartz, Mathilde Pascal, Niilo Ryti, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva, Michelle L. Bell, Yuming Guo · 发表于：PLoS Medicine · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pmed.1004364 · 被引用次数：89 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Circadian rhythm and melatonin、Thermal Regulation in Medicine

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess death...