Effects of Environment Change Scenarios on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. in China

作者：Jiajie Feng, Yiwei Cao, Teja Manda, Delight Hwarari, Jinhui Chen, Liming Yang · 发表于：Forests · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3390/f15050830 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant and animal studies、Forest Insect Ecology and Management

Changes in climate and environmental conditions have aggravated the severity and unpredictability of plant survival and growth. Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. is an economically important timber tree. Exploring its potential distribution and dynamic changes and identifying the leading environmental variables affecting it will help to adjust the planting range reasonably according to the habits and climate change, thus contributing to its survival and growth. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS tool, climate, soil, terrain, human activities, variable environment layers, and 395 C. lanceolata distribution points were used to simulate and analyze the geographical distribution characteristics of C. lanceolata in the current and future periods (the 2050s and 2070s) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. The results showed that C. lanceolata was suitable to grow in a subtropical monsoon climate with warm, humid, abundant rainfall and a relatively gentle topography. Additionally, using percent contribution, permutation importance, and the knife-cutting test, we noted that the annual precipitation (Bio12), human activities (Hfp), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), annual temperature range (Bio7), and elevation were the leading environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. lanceolata. Among them, it should be noted that the impact of human activitie...