A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin

作者：Lina Liu, Liping Zhang, Qin Zhang, Lei Zou, Gangsheng Wang, Xiao Li, Zhenyu Tang · 发表于：Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101802 · 被引用次数：14 · 研究领域：Cryospheric studies and observations、Climate change and permafrost、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Three headwater basins of the Tarim River This study built upon existing knowledge by incorporating threshold melting temperatures into the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model and decomposing the streamflow changes into individual runoff components. Additional glacier retreat rate data were used to calibrate the improved SPHY, which provides better constrained estimates of glacier response to climate change. We employed bias-corrected simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to drive the improved SPHY under four future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). Modeling results show accelerated glacier melt in the future, with glacier volume at the end of this century projected to be less than 20% of the current level under SSP5–8.5. Furthermore, future streamflow is expected to decrease, most notably in the Karakash River basin under the SSP1–2.6 scenario. The reduction in streamflow, mainly during the summer months, results from decreased glacier melt runoff, which cannot be offset by increased rainfall runoff. Additionally, the implementation of climate change mitigation measures could delay glacier loss, but the dominant component of runoff would still shift from current glacier melt to future rainfall. Global warming accelerates the hydrological cycle, altering the temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow, especially in cold regions, such as the Tarim River Basin. Understanding future streamflow changes is impo...