Predicting the onset of myopia in children by age, sex, and ethnicity: Results from the CLEERE Study

作者：Donald O. Mutti, Loraine T. Sinnott, Susan A. Cotter, Lisa A. Jones‐Jordan, Robert N. Kleinstein, Ruth E. Manny, J. Daniel Twelker, Karla Zadnik · 发表于：Optometry and Vision Science · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1097/opx.0000000000002127 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies、Corneal surgery and disorders、Retinopathy of Prematurity Studies

SIGNIFICANCE: Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States. PURPOSE: This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children. METHODS: Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics. RESULTS: The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger...