Trends in medication use after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Ireland: an interrupted time series study

作者：Maria Mattsson, Julie A. Hong, John Scott Frazer, Glenn Ross Frazer, Frank Moriarty · 发表于：International Journal of Pharmacy Practice · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1093/ijpp/riae013.001 · 研究领域：COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on a range of health services, particularly in primary care. Research from Ireland suggests while community pharmacies remained open, restrictions for in-person healthcare appointments impacted patients.[1] Although there is evidence that the onset of the pandemic affected medicines utilisation internationally,[2] it is unclear how prescribing in Ireland changed following March 2020. Aim To evaluate how dispensing of medications in primary care in Ireland changed following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to expected trends. Methods This was an interrupted time series study, and the protocol was pre-registered (doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/WNQHR). It used publicly available data from the Health Service Executive Primary Care Reimbursement Services for each month between January 2016 and July 2022. Data covered dispensing on the General Medical Services (i.e. medical card) scheme for all medication therapeutic subgroups and commonly dispensed medications (based on the top 100 individual medications per month). Pre-pandemic data (January 2016-November 2019) was used to forecast expected trends from December 2019 onwards for each subgroup and medication with 99% prediction intervals. The Holt-Winters method was used, which decomposes time series data into seasonal, trend, and irregular components. Three months of observed data unaffected by the pandemic (December 2019-February 2020, validation period) wer...