Predictive model and risk analysis for coronary heart disease in people living with HIV using machine learning

作者：Zengjing Liu, Zhihao Meng, Di Wei, Qin Yuan, Yu Lv, Luman Xie, Hong Qiu, Bo Xie, Lanxiang Li, Xihua Wei, Die Zhang, Boying Liang, Wen Li, Shanfang Qin, Tengyue Yan, Qiuxia Meng, Huilin Wei, Guiyang Jiang, Lingsong Su, Nili Jiang, Kai Zhang, Jiannan Lv, Yanling Hu · 发表于：BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1186/s12911-024-02511-5 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：HIV-related health complications and treatments、Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare、Biological Research and Disease Studies

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to construct a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk-prediction model in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) with the help of machine learning (ML) per electronic medical records (EMRs). METHODS: Sixty-one medical characteristics (including demography information, laboratory measurements, and complicating disease) readily available from EMRs were retained for clinical analysis. These characteristics further aided the development of prediction models by using seven ML algorithms [light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM), support vector machine (SVM), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), decision tree, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and logistic regression]. The performance of this model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was further applied to interpret the findings of the best-performing model. RESULTS: The LightGBM model exhibited the highest AUC (0.849; 95% CI, 0.814-0.883). Additionally, the SHAP plot per the LightGBM depicted that age, heart failure, hypertension, glucose, serum creatinine, indirect bilirubin, serum uric acid, and amylase can help identify PLHIV who were at a high or low risk of developing CHD. CONCLUSION: This study developed a CHD risk prediction model for PLHIV utilizing ML techniques and EMR data. The LightGBM model exhibited improved comprehensive performance and thus had higher reliability in...