Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Rose Grace Bender, Sarah Brooke Sirota, Lucien R Swetschinski, Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez, Amanda Novotney, Eve E Wool, Kevin Shunji Ikuta, Avina Vongpradith, Emma L B Rogowski, Matthew C Doxey, Christopher Troeger, Samuel B Albertson, Jianing Ma, Jiawei He, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Eric A. F. Simões, Meriem Abdoun, Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Samir Abu‐Rumeileh, Hasan Abualruz, Salahdein Aburuz, Victor Abiola Adepoju, Rishan Adha, Wirawan Adikusuma, Saryia Adra, Ali Afraz, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade, Haroon Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Karolina Akinosoglou, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer, Mohammed ALBashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Abid Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Jaber Saud Alqahtani, Mohammad Alqudah, Jaffar A. Al‐Tawfiq, Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi, Karem Hasan Alzoubi, Reza Amani, Prince Michael Amegbor, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, John Amuasi, Abhishek Anil, Philip Emeka Anyanwu, Mosab Arafat, Damelash Areda, Reza Arefnezhad, Kendalem Asmare Atalell, Firayad Ayele, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Hassan Babamohamadi, François-Xavier Babin, Yogesh Arvind Bahurupi, Stephen G. Baker, Biswajit Banik, Martina Barchitta, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Zarrin Basharat, Pritish Baskaran, Kavita Batra, Ravi Batra, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Apostolos I. Beloukas, James Alexander Berkley, Kebede Abera Beyene, Ashish Bhargava, Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee, Julia Anna Bielicki, Mariah Malak Bilalaga, Veera Raghavulu Bitra, Colin Stewart Brown, Katrin Gabriele Burkart, Yasser Khalil Bustanji, Sinclair Carr, Yaacoub Chahine, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Fatemeh Chichagi, Hitesh Chopra, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eunice Chung, Sriharsha Dadana, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Isaac Darban, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Mohadese Dashtkoohi, Denise Myriam Dekker, Iván Delgado‐Enciso, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Kuldeep Dhama, Nancy Diao, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Klara Georgieva Dokova, Christiane Dolecek, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Tim Eckmanns, Abdelaziz Ed‐Dra, Ferry Efendi, Aziz Eftekharimehrabad, David W. Eyre, Ayesha Fahim, Alireza Feizkhah, Timothy Felton, Nuno Bravo Ferreira, Luísa Sório Flor, Santosh Gaihre, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Christine Geffers, Urge Gerema, Kazem Ghaffari, Mohamad Goldust, Pouya Goleij, Shi‐Yang Guan, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Cui Guo, Veer Bala Gupta, Ishita Gupta, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Emily Haeuser, Wase Benti Hailu, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Sebastian Haller, Mohammad Hamiduzzaman, Nasrin Hanifi, Jan Hansel, Md Saquib Hasnain, Johannes Haubold, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Hong-Han Huynh, Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu, Md. Rabiul Islam, Abdollah Jafarzadeh, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mahsa Jalili, Nabi Jomehzadeh, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Md Awal Kabir, Zul Kamal, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Rami S. Kantar, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Navjot Kaur, Harkiran Kaur, Faham Khamesipour, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb, Vishnu Khanal, Khaled Khatab, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Grace E. Kim, Kwanghyun Kim, Aiggan Tamene Tamene Kitila, Somayeh Komaki, Kewal Krishan, Ralf Krumkamp, Md Abdul Kuddus, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Chandrakant Lahariya, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Thao T. Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Seung Won Lee, Alain Lepape, Temesgen Leka Lerango, Ming‐Chieh Li, Amir Ali Mahboobipour, Kashish Malhotra, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Anand Manoharan, Bernardo Alfonso Martínez-Guerra, Alexander G. Mathioudakis, Rita Mattiello, Jürgen May, Barney McManigal, Steven McPhail, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Mohsen Merati, Tomislav Meštrović, Laurette Mhlanga, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Awoke Misganaw, Vinaytosh Mishra, Arup Kumar Misra, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mesud Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Catrin E. Moore, Rohith Motappa, Vincent Mougin, Parsa Mousavi, Francesk Mulita, Atsedemariam Andualem Mulu, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R. Naik, Firzan Nainu, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Shumaila Nargus, Mohammad Negaresh, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Dang Nguyen, Văn Thành Nguyễn, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis, Efaq Ali Noman, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Ismail Ayoade Odetokun, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Matifan Dereje Olana, Titilope O. Olanipekun, Omotola O Olasupo, Antonio Olivas‐Martínez, Michał Ordak, Edgar Ortíz‐Brizuela, Amel Ouyahia, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Anton Pak, Anamika Pandey, Ioannis N. Pantazopoulos, Pragyan Paramita Parija, Romil R Parikh, Seoyeon Park, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Ava Pashaei, Prince Peprah, Hoang Tran Pham, Dimitri Poddighe, Andrew John Pollard, Alfredo Ponce‐de‐León, Peralam Yegneswaran Prakash, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Nguyen Khoi Quan, Pourya Raee, Fakher Rahim, Mosiur Rahman, Masoud Rahmati, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Shubham Ranjan, Indu Ramachandra Rao, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Sayaphet Rattanavong, Nakul Ravikumar, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy, Elrashdy M Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Robert C. Reiner, Luis Felipe Reyes, Tamalee Roberts, Mónica Rodrigues, Víctor Rosenthal, Priyanka Roy, Tilleye Runghien, Umar Abid Saeed, Amene Saghazadeh, Narjes Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Monalisha Sahu, Joseph W. Sakshaug, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed Ahmed Saleh, Hossein Salehi Omran, Malik Sallam, Sara Samadzadeh, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Rama Krishna Sanjeev, Made Ary Sarasmita, Aswini Saravanan, Benn K. D. Sartorius, Jennifer Saulam, Austin E Schumacher, Seyed Arsalan Seyedi, Mahan Shafie, Samiah Shahid, Sunder Sham, Muhammad Aaqib Shamim, Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran, Rajesh Padumane Shastry, Samendra P. Sherchan, Desalegn Shiferaw, Aminu Shittu, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, Robert Sinto, Aayushi Sood, Reed J D Sorensen, Andy S. Stergachis, Temenuga Zhekova Stoeva, Chandan Kumar Swain, Łukasz Szarpak, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Mohamad-Hani A. Temsah, Melkamu B Tessema Tessema, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Nghia Minh Tran, Ngoc-Ha Tran, Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu, Sree Sudha Tanguturi Yella, Aniefiok John Udoakang, Inam Ul Haq, Tungki Pratama Umar, Abdurezak Adem Umer, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Jef Van den Eynde, Judd L. Walson, Muhammad Salman Waqas, Yuhan Xing, Mukesh Yadav, Galal Yahya, Dong Keon Yon, Abed Zahedi Bialvaei, Fathiah Zakham, Abyalew Mamuye Zeleke, Chunxia Zhai, Zhaofeng Zhang, Haijun Zhang, Magdalena Zielińska, Peng Zheng, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Theo Vos, Simon Iain Hay, Jonathan F Mosser, Stephen S Lim, Mohsen Naghavi, Christopher J L Murray, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu · 发表于：The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00176-2 · 被引用次数：573 · 研究领域：Respiratory viral infections research、Antibiotic Use and Resistance、Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, ...