Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Masayuki Teramoto, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Abd‐Elsalam, Mohammad Abdollahı, Mohammad‐Amin Abdollahifar, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tadele Girum Girum Adal, Mesafint Molla Adane, Oluwafemi Adeagbo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Victor Abiola Adepoju, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel A Adeyinka, Olorunsola Adeyomoye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Shadi Afyouni, Muhammad U. Afzal, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang‐Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Rufus Akinyemi, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Sreelatha Akkala, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Mohammad Al Qadire, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Tariq A. Alalwan, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Al‐Amer, Fahad Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza A. Albakri, Mohammed ALBashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemi, Megbaru Alemu, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Adel Al‐Gheethi, Khalid F. AlHabib, Noora Alhajri, Fadwa Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Mohammad Abdullah Aljasir, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Basem Al‐Omari, Jaber S. Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A. Al‐Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem H. Alzoubi, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Mostafa Amini‐Rarani, Sohrab Amiri, Irene G. Ampomah, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari‐Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Saeid Anvari, Saleha Anwar, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Timur Aripov, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohsen Asadi‐Lari, Zatollah Asemi, Saeed Asgary, Mona Asghariahmadabad, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Atout, Alok Atreya, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Rui Azevedo, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L. Baker, Abdulaziz Bako, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, M. Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Mehmet Fırat Baran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone‐Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Sanjay Basu, Abdul‐Monim Batiha, Kavita Batra, Bernhard T. Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramírez, Alehegn Bekele, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Uzma Belgaumi, Michelle L. Bell, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Apostolos Beloukas, Isabela M. Benseñor, Zombor Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J. G. Bettencourt, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S. Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Veera Raghavulu Bitra, Tone Bjørge, Elye Bliss, Micheal Kofi Boachie, Anca Bobîrcă, Virgínia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Başara, Souad Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Bräuer, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Dana Bryazka, Norma B. Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A. Burns, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Daniela Călina, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Fan Cao, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sarika Chaturvedi, Malizgani Paul Chavula, An‐Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chen, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Ju‐Huei Chien, Patrick R Ching, William C. Cho, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali G Choudhari, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Lim Teik Chung, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, Raffaela Ciuffreda, Rafael Moreira Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, João Conde, Michael H Criqui, Natália Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Tukur Dahiru, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Anna Dastiridou, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Kairat Davletov, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Shayom Debopadhaya, Somayeh Delavari, Iván Delgado‐Enciso, Dessalegn Demeke, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Xin Deng, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Vishal Dhulipala, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Díaz, Michael J. Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Thanh Chi, Thao Huynh Phuong, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D’Oria, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Savy Dsouza, John Dube, J Duprey, André Rodrigues Durães, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Kristina Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Michael Ekholuenetale, Maha El Tantawi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Legesse Tesfaye Elilo, Omar El Meligy, Mohamed A. Elmonem, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Aliasghar Fakhri‐Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Ali Faramarzi, MoezAlIslam E. Faris, Sam Farmer, André Faro, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Feroze, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Nataliya A Foigt, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Kate Francis, Alberto Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Blima Fux, Péter Gaál, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Aravind P. Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Naval Garg, Rupesh K. Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Semiu O. Gbadamosi, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Simona Roxana Georgescu, Urge Gerema, Habtamu Geremew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Peter W. Gething, Mohammad‐Reza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Mahsa Ghorbani, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Artyom Gil, Tiffany K. Gill, Matteo Giorgi, Alem Girmay, James Glasbey, László Göbölös, Amit Goel, Ali Golchin, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C. Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi‐Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Stefano Guicciardi, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Nadia Μ. Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Qiuxia Han, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Md. Nuruzzaman Haque, Josep María Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Hasan, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J. Hébert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Bartosz Helfer, Mehdi Hemmati, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herţeliu, Kamran Hessami, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsaïri, Vivian Chia‐Rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, M. Mamun Huda, Ayesha Humayun, Javid Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing‐Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Md. Rabiul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Farhad Jadidi‐Niaragh, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Elham Jamshidi, Sabzali Javadov, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Sun Ha Jee, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Anil Kumar Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, Heng Bo Jiang, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B. Jonas, Tamás Joó, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, K Vaishali, Billingsley Kaambwa, Abdulkareem Kabir, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Kamath, Sagarika Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Suthanthira Kannan S, Sushil Kumar Kansal, Rami S. Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Manoochehr Karami, Ibraheem M. Karaye, Faizan Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Joonas H. Kauppila, Foad Kazemi, Sara Kazeminia, John H. Kempen, Evie Kendal, Kamyab Keshtkar, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Anees Ahmed Khalil, Alireza Khalilian, Faham Khamesipour, Ajmal Khan, Asaduzzaman Khan, Ikramullah Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Moein Khormali, Mohammad Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Wondwosen Teklesilasie Kidane, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Oleksii Korzh, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Kewal Krishan, Varun Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Kunle Rotimi Kunle, Om Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Evans F. Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Iván Landires, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Heidi J. Larson, Anders Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Long Khanh‐Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Caterina Ledda, Munjae Lee, Paul H. Lee, Seung Won Lee, Yo Han Lee, Gebretsadik Kiros Lema, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen Leka Lerango, An Li, Ming‐Chieh Li, Shanshan Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Virendra S Ligade, Stephen S Lim, Ro‐Ting Lin, Paulina A Lindstedt, Stefan Listl, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Erand Llanaj, Rubén López‐Bueno, Platon D Lopukhov, László Lorenzovici, Paulo A. Lotufo, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevičius, Hengliang Lv, Zheng Feei, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Monika Machoy, Áurea Madureira-Carvalho, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azzam A. Maghazachi, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Azeem Majeed, Jeadran Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Yosef Manla, Yasaman Mansoori, Ali Mansour, Borhan Mansouri, Zeinab Mansouri, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Mirko Marino, Abdoljalal Marjani, Gabriel Martínez, Ramón Martínez, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Miquel Martorell, Sharmeen Maryam, Roy Rillera Marzo, Alireza Masoudi, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard J. Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Erin A May, Mahsa Mayeli, Maryam Mazaheri, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura W McKowen, Susan A. McLaughlin, Steven McPhail, Rahul Mehra, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, George A. Mensah, Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Mohsen Merati, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera Mersha, Tomislav Meštrović, Pouya Metanat, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tianyue Mi, Tomasz Miazgowski, Georgia Micha, Irmina Maria Michałek, Ted R. Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Mojgan Mirghafourvand‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Mizan Kiros Mirutse, Moonis Mirza, Roya Mirzaei, Ashim Mishra, Sanjeev Misra, Philip B. Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Babak Moazen, Abdalla Z. Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Sakineh Mohammad‐Alizadeh‐Charandabi, Soheil Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Mustapha Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Peyman Mokhtarzadehazar, Hossein Molavi Vardanjani, Sabrina Molinaro, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane D. Morrison, Jakub Morze, Abbas Mosapour, Elías Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Parsa Mousavi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Christine Mpundu‐Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Lorenzo Muccioli, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo‐Zamora, Jonah Musa, Fungai Musaigwa, Ana-Maria Mușină, Sathish Muthu, Muthupandian Saravanan, Muhammad Muzaffar, Woojae Myung, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gabriele Nagel, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R. Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Firzan Nainu, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G. Nascimento, Abdallah Y. Naser, Mohammad Javad Nasiri, Zuhair S. Natto, Javaid Nauman, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Sabina O. Nduaguba, Hadush Negash, Chernet Tafere Negesse, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Georges Nguefack‐Tsague, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Dang Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Τaxiarchis Κonstantinos Νikolouzakis, Ali Nikoobar, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi, Efaq Ali Noman, Shuhei Nomura, Mamoona Noreen, Nafise Noroozi, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Mengistu H Nunemo, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Dieta Nurrika, Jerry John Nutor, Bogdan Oancea, Kehinde Obamiro, Ismail Ayoade Odetokun, Nkechi Martina Odogwu, Martin O’Donnell, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, James Odhiambo Oguta, In‐Hwan Oh, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Andrew T Olagunju, Omotola O Olasupo, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase, Hany A. Omar, Goran Latif Omer, Obinna Onwujekwe, Michał Ordak, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Verner N. Orish, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortíz, Esteban Ortiz‐Prado, Wael M S Osman, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Olayinka Osuolale, Adrian Oţoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Amel Ouyahia, Guoqing Ouyang, Mayowa Owolabi, Yaz Ozten, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Feng Pan, Hai‐Feng Pan, Adrian Pană, Paramjot Panda, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan, Georgios D. Panos, Leonidas D Panos, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Anca Pantea Stoian, Romil R Parikh, Seoyeon Park, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Ava Pashaei, Roberto Passera, Hemal M Patel, Jay Patel, Shankargouda Patil, Dimitrios Patoulias, Venkata Suresh Patthipati, Uttam Paudel, Mihaela Păun, Hamidreza Pazoki–Toroudi, Spencer A Pease, Amy E. Peden, Paolo Pedersini, Minjin Peng, Umberto Pensato, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Prince Peprah, Gavin Pereira, Mário Fernando Prieto Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Richard G. 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Zyoud, Christopher J L Murray, Amanda Smith, Stein Emil Vollset · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6 · 被引用次数：597 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Family Dynamics and Relationships

BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Eval...