Identifying Predictive Risk Factors for Future Cognitive Impairment Among Chinese Older Adults: Longitudinal Prediction Study

作者：Collin Sakal, Tingyou Li, Juan Li, Xinyue Li · 发表于：JMIR Aging · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.2196/53240 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research、Frailty in Older Adults、Technology Use by Older Adults

Background: The societal burden of cognitive impairment in China has prompted researchers to develop clinical prediction models aimed at making risk assessments that enable preventative interventions. However, it is unclear what types of risk factors best predict future cognitive impairment, if known risk factors make equally accurate predictions across different socioeconomic groups, and if existing prediction models are equally accurate across different subpopulations. Objective: This paper aimed to identify which domain of health information best predicts future cognitive impairment among Chinese older adults and to examine if discrepancies exist in predictive ability across different population subsets. Methods: Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we quantified the ability of demographics, instrumental activities of daily living, activities of daily living, cognitive tests, social factors and hobbies, psychological factors, diet, exercise and sleep, chronic diseases, and 3 recently published logistic regression-based prediction models to predict 3-year risk of cognitive impairment in the general Chinese population and among male, female, rural-dwelling, urban-dwelling, educated, and not formally educated older adults. Predictive ability was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity-specificity curves through 20 repeats of 10-fold cross-validation. Results: A total of 4047 participants w...