Assessment of the impacts of water resources allocation on the reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus system

作者：Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, Jiabo Yin, Zhenhui Wu, Wan Zhou · 发表于：Agricultural Water Management · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108780 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water resources management and optimization

To ensure water, energy and food supply security in the future, examining resources shortage risks within the integrated management strategy of the water-energy-food-society (WEFS) nexus system under uncertainties is necessary. Reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) are the most popular criteria for quantifying risks. However, their current applications focus on individual systems and adopt constant resource shortage rate thresholds across different spatial scales. To consider the interconnections in the WEFS nexus system and reflect the spatial heterogeneities of resource shortage risks when estimating the RRV, this study proposed a framework for estimating the RRV of the WEFS nexus system under uncertainties through a WEFS nexus model integrating water resources allocation model. Water availability uncertainty was simulated using Monte Carlo simulation and inputted into the stochastic WEFS nexus model. The water, energy, and food shortage rates outputted from the WEFS nexus model were used to determine the RRV of the WEFS nexus system. The impacts of water resources allocation on the RRV of the WEFS nexus system were studied by investigating its response to different water resources allocation scenarios at the basin and operational zone scales. The results indicated that water resources allocation can effectively ensure water supply through reservoir operation and further decrease the shortage risk of water and food systems through its nexus. The vulnerability of ...