A review of existing model-based scenarios achieving SDGs: progress and challenges

作者：K. Orbons, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Geanderson Ambrósio, Sushma S. Kulkarni, Eartha Weber, Vallejo Zapata, Vassilis Daioglou, Andries F. Hof, Caroline Zimm · 发表于：Global Sustainability · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1017/sus.2023.20 · 被引用次数：14 · 研究领域：Climate Change Policy and Economics、Sustainability and Climate Change Governance、Environmental Impact and Sustainability

Abstract Non-Technical Summary In 2015, the United Nations articulated the ambition to move toward a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all by adopting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, little is known about the pathways that could lead to their concurrent achievement. We provide an overview of the current literature on quantitative pathways toward the SDGs, indicate the commonly used methods and indicators, and identify the most comprehensive pathways that have been published to date. Our results indicate that there is a need for more scenarios toward the full set of SDGs, using a wider range of underlying narratives. Technical Summary Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help to explore the needed systems' transformations to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development by identifying enabling conditions and accounting for the synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs. Given that the SDGs were adopted some time ago, here, we review the existing global scenario literature to determine what it can offer in this context. We found only a few scenarios that address a large set of SDGs, while many more deal with specific clusters of 2–6 SDGs. We identified the most frequent clusters and compared the results of the most comprehensive sustainable development scenarios. The latter is complicated because of the diversity of methods, indicators, and assumptions used. Therefore, we suggest that an effort is ne...