The analysis on groundwater storage variations from GRACE/GRACE-FO in recent 20 years driven by influencing factors and prediction in Shandong Province, China

作者：Wanqiu Li, Lifeng Bao, Guobiao Yao, Fengwei Wang, Qiuying Guo, Jie Zhu, Jinjie Zhu, Zhiwei Wang, Jingxue Bi, Chengcheng Zhu, Yulong Zhong, Shaoyi Lu · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-024-55588-3 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Geophysics and Gravity Measurements、Geophysical and Geoelectrical Methods、Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies

Monitoring and predicting the regional groundwater storage (GWS) fluctuation is an essential support for effectively managing water resources. Therefore, taking Shandong Province as an example, the data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) is used to invert GWS fluctuation from January 2003 to December 2022 together with Watergap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM), in-situ groundwater volume and level data. The spatio-temporal characteristics are decomposed using Independent Components Analysis (ICA), and the impact factors, such as precipitation and human activities, which are also analyzed. To predict the short-time changes of GWS, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) is adopted together with three commonly used methods Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model (ARMA), as the comparison. The results show that: (1) The loss intensity of western GWS is significantly greater than those in coastal areas. From 2003 to 2006, GWS increased sharply; during 2007 to 2014, there exists a loss rate - 5.80 ± 2.28 mm/a of GWS; the linear trend of GWS change is - 5.39 ± 3.65 mm/a from 2015 to 2022, may be mainly due to the effect of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The correlation coefficient between GRACE and WGHM is 0.67, which is consistent with in-situ groundwater volume and level. (2) The GWS has higher positive correlation with monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project...