Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios

作者：Luigi Cao Pinna, Laure Gallien, Laura J. Pollock, Irena Axmanová, Milan Chytrý, Marco Malavasi, Alicia Teresa Rosario Acosta, Juan Antonio Campos, Marta Carboni · 发表于：Ecography · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1111/ecog.07085 · 被引用次数：35 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant and animal studies、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

The Mediterranean Basin has historically been subject to alien plant invasions that threaten its unique biodiversity. This seasonally dry and densely populated region is undergoing severe climatic and socioeconomic changes, and it is unclear whether these changes will worsen or mitigate plant invasions. Predictions are often biased, as species may not be in equilibrium in the invaded environment, depending on their invasion stage and ecological characteristics. To address future predictions uncertainty, we identified invasion hotspots across multiple biased modelling scenarios and ecological characteristics of successful invaders. We selected 92 alien plant species widespread in Mediterranean Europe and compiled data on their distribution in the Mediterranean and worldwide. We combined these data with environmental and propagule pressure variables to model global and regional species niches, and map their current and future habitat suitability. We identified invasion hotspots, examined their potential future shifts, and compared the results of different modelling strategies. Finally, we generalised our findings by using linear models to determine the traits and biogeographic features of invaders most likely to benefit from global change. Currently, invasion hotspots are found near ports and coastlines throughout Mediterranean Europe. However, many species occupy only a small portion of the environmental conditions to which they are preadapted, suggesting that their invasion i...