Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

作者：Ming Li, Yi Zhang, Yongsheng Yang, Tongxin Wang, Chu Wu, Xiujuan Zhang · 发表于：Plants · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3390/plants13050645 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant and animal studies、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613–2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, −5.8–8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. or...