Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Aimin Wu, Marita Cross, James Matthew Elliott, Garland T Culbreth, Lydia M Haile, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Hailey Hagins, Jacek A Kopec, Peter Brooks, Anthony D. Woolf, Deborah R. Kopansky-Giles, David Mark Walton, Julia M. Treleaven, Karsten E Dreinhoefer, Neil Betteridge, Mitra Abbasifard, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Janardhana P Aithala, Fadwa Alhalaiqa, Yousef Alimohamadi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Gamechu Hunde Atomsa, Sina Azadnajafabad, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Soroush Baghdadi, Saliu Adejumobi Balogun, Asaminew Birhanu Balta, Maciej Banach, Morteza Banakar, Amadou Barrow, Azadeh Bashiri, Alehegn Bekele, Isabela M. Benseñor, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Awraris Hailu Bilchut, Andrew M. Briggs, Rachelle Buchbinder, Chao Cao, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Jesús Lorenzo Chirinos-Cáceres, Steffan Wittrup Christensen, Kaleb Coberly, Ewerton Cousin, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Katie E. de Luca, Azizallah Dehghan, Huan‐Ji Dong, Michael Ekholuenetale, Muhammed Elhadi, Habitu Birhan Eshetu, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Farshid Etaee, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Jawad Fares, Ali Fatehizadeh, Alireza Feizkhah, Manuela Loureiro Ferreira, Nuno Bravo Ferreira, Florian Fischer, Richard Charles Franklin, Balasankar Ganesan, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Urge Gerema, Ali Gholami, Sherief Ghozy, Tiffany K. Gill, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Simon Matthew Graham, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Netanja I. Harlianto, Jan Hartvigsen, Mohammad Hasanian, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Simon Iain Hay, Jeffrey J. Hébert, Golnaz Heidari, Amir Human Hoveidaei, Alexander Kevin Hsiao, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Chidozie C D Iwu, Louis Jacob, Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia, Yingzhao Jin, Jost Bruno Jonas, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Himal Kandel, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Moien AB Khan, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Sorour Khateri, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Mohammad Saeid Khonji, Jagdish Khubchandani, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Kewal Krishan, Mohammed Kuddus, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Savita Lasrado, Yo Han Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, Stephen S Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Justin Lo, Narges Malih, Shisir Prasad Manandhar, Elezebeth Mathews, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Meštrović, Ted R. Miller, Peyman Mirghaderi, Awoke Misganaw, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Christopher J L Murray, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, In‐Hwan Oh, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, Kevin Pacheco‐Barrios, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Seoyeon Park, Jay Patel, Shrikant S. Pawar, Paolo Pedersini, Mário Fernando Prieto Peres, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Mohammadreza Pourahmadi, Ibrahim Qattea, Pradhum Ram, Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi, Salman Rawaf, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Umar Abid Saeed, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Saina Salahi, Monika S. Sawhney, Austin E Schumacher, Mahan Shafie, Saeed Shahabi, Ataollah Shahbandi, Ali Shamekh, Saurab Sharma, Rahman Shiri, Parnian Shobeiri, Ehsan Sinaei, Ambrish Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda Elizabeth Smith, Mohammad Tabish, Ker‐Kan Tan, Masresha Derese Tegegne, Samar Tharwat, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Stein Emil Vollset, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Taweewat Wiangkham, Naohiro Yonemoto, Moein Zangiabadian, Iman Zare, Dawit Tefra Zemedikun, Peng Zheng, Kanyin Liane Ong, Theo Vos, LYN M. MARCH · 发表于：The Lancet Rheumatology · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00321-1 · 被引用次数：286 · 研究领域：Musculoskeletal pain and rehabilitation、Spine and Intervertebral Disc Pathology、Fibromyalgia and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Research

BACKGROUND: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. METHODS: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised pr...