Assessing the impact of climate change on three Populus species in China: Distribution patterns and implications

作者：Peng Wang, Weixue Luo, Qingyu Zhang, Shunxin Han, Zheng Jin, Jinchun Liu, Zongfeng Li, Jianping Tao · 发表于：Global Ecology and Conservation · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e02853 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Forest Management and Policy、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Populus, one of the most extensively cultivated tree species in China, holds substantial potential for carbon sequestration potential and economic value. However, the effects of climate change on different Populus species remain unclear. Consequently, there is an urgent to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Populus under current and future climate scenarios. This study employed four ecological niche models and integrated data from multiple environmental sources to analyze the potential distribution patterns of three key Populus species—Populus tomentosa, Populus cathayana, and Populus lasiocarpa—under current and various future climate scenarios (2050, 2070, and 2090). Furthermore, the study identified the primary factors influencing their potential distribution. The occurrence of P. tomentosa was primarily influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Conversely, human population density was the most important factor for P. cathayana, showing strong positive effects on both P. tomentosa and P. cathayana occurrences. Soil total nitrogen had the strongest positive effect on P. lasiocarpa. The study found P. cathayana primarily in northern and northwestern China (105.45 × 104 km2), P. tomentosa in the northern and central regions (82.85 × 104 km2), and P. lasiocarpa in the southwest (49.17 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, P. tomentosa and P. cathayana may shift towards higher latitudes, while P. lasiocarpa may shift towards lower lat...