Integrated flood risk assessment in Hunza-Nagar, Pakistan: unifying big climate data analytics and multi-criteria decision-making with GIS

作者：Muhammad Ahsan Mukhtar, Donghui Shangguan, Yongjian Ding, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Abhishek Banerjee, Asim Qayyum Butt, Nilesh Yadav, Da Li, Qin Yang, Amjad Ali Khan, Ali Muhammad, Bei Bei He · 发表于：Frontiers in Environmental Science · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.3389/fenvs.2024.1337081 · 被引用次数：44 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Hydrology and Drought Analysis

Floods are a widespread natural disaster with substantial economic implications and far-reaching consequences. In Northern Pakistan, the Hunza-Nagar valley faces vulnerability to floods, posing significant challenges to its sustainable development. This study aimed to evaluate flood risk in the region by employing a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach and big climate data records. By using a comprehensive flood risk assessment model, a flood hazard map was developed by considering nine influential factors: rainfall, regional temperature variation, distance to the river, elevation, slope, Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Topographic wetness index (TWI), land use/land cover (LULC), curvature, and soil type. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis assigned weights to each factor and integrated with geospatial data using a GIS to generate flood risk maps, classifying hazard levels into five categories. The study assigned higher importance to rainfall, distance to the river, elevation, and slope compared to NDVI, TWI, LULC, curvature, and soil type. The weighted overlay flood risk map obtained from the reclassified maps of nine influencing factors identified 6% of the total area as very high, 36% as high, 41% as moderate, 16% as low, and 1% as very low flood risk. The accuracy of the flood risk model was demonstrated through the Receiver Operating Characteristics-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) analysis, yielding a commendable prediction...