Streamflow abrupt change and the driving factors in glacierized basins of Tarim Basin, Northwest China

作者：Chengde Yang, Min Xu, Shichang Kang, Congsheng Fu, Wei Zhang, Didi Hu · 发表于：Advances in Climate Change Research · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.009 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Cryospheric studies and observations、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Climate change and permafrost

A climate transition towards warm–wet conditions in Northwest China has drawn much attention. With continuous climate change and universal glacier degradation, increasing water-related hazards and vulnerability have become one of the important problems facing the Tarim Basin. However, the impacts of the climate transition on streamflow abrupt change and extreme hydrological events were less discussed, especially in glacial basins. In the present study, the discharge datasets in four glacial basins of Tarim Basin from 1979 to 2018 were constructed using the GRU-GSWAT+ model first. The differences in streamflow characteristics, the shift of hydrological extreme pattern, and potential changes of the controlling factors before and after the abrupt changes were investigated. The results indicated that the abrupt change point (ACP) in streamflow occurred in 2000 in the Qarqan River Basin, 2002 in the Weigan River Basin, and 1994 in the Aksu River Basin and the Yarkant River Basin. A general decrease in streamflow before the ACP has shifted to a notable upward trend in the Qarqan River Basin and the Aksu River Basin, while minor upward fluctuations were observed in other basins. Moreover, the hydrological characteristics in extreme events vary dramatically before and after the ACPs, characterized by a pronouncing shift from drought-dominant pattern to wet events dominated pattern. The driven climate factors have been altered after the ACPs with notable spatial heterogeneity, in whic...