Distinguishing Trajectories and Drivers of Vegetated Ecosystems in China's Loess Plateau

作者：Zhuangzhuang Wang, Bojie Fu, Xutong Wu, Shuai Wang, Yingjie Li, Yuhao Feng, Liwei Zhang, Ying Hu, Linhai Cheng, Binbin Li · 发表于：Earth s Future · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1029/2023ef003769 · 被引用次数：64 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Ecosystem dynamics and resilience、Remote Sensing in Agriculture

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems can exhibit various behaviors in response to climate change and human activities. Nonlinear and abrupt shifts in ecosystems are particularly important as they indicate substantial modifications in ecosystem structure and function, posing a threat to the provision of ecosystem services. Here we distinguish between linear, curvilinear, and abrupt shifts in ecosystem productivity from 2000 to 2020 in China's Loess Plateau. We utilize spatial Random Forest models to analyze the driving factors behind these change patterns. Our findings indicate that 84.1% of the ecosystems experienced a positive change in plant productivity, while a small proportion (2.5%) exhibited a negative change. Abrupt shifts are prevalent in both positive and negative changes in ecosystem productivity, with negative changes often manifesting as abrupt shifts (79.3%). Negative changes in plant productivity, particularly the negative abrupt shifts, are primarily associated with human activities characterized by increased nighttime light and urbanization. Land conversion to forest is linked to a curvilinear trajectory in plant productivity, characterized by nonlinear changes with acceleration. Higher water availability and a wetter environment are more likely to promote positive changes in plant productivity. Moderate warming trends contribute to abrupt positive changes in plant productivity, while high warming trends are associated with increased negative abrupt and curvilinea...