Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis

作者：Bart Roelofs, Daniella Vos, Yaskara Halabi, Izzy Gerstenbluth, Ashley J. Duits, María Eugenia Grillet, Adriana Tami, María F. Vincenti‐González · 发表于：Parasite Epidemiology and Control · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1016/j.parepi.2024.e00338 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Data-Driven Disease Surveillance、COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Dengue viruses are a significant global health concern, causing millions of infections annually and putting approximately half of the world's population at risk, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue virus spread is crucial for effective prevention of future outbreaks. By investigating these patterns, targeted dengue surveillance and control measures can be improved, aiding in the management of outbreaks in dengue-affected regions. Curaçao, where dengue is endemic, has experienced frequent outbreaks over the past 25 years. To examine the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Curaçao, this study employs an interdisciplinary and multi-method approach. Data on >6500 cases of dengue infections in Curaçao between the years 1995 and 2016 were used. Temporal and spatial statistics were applied. The Moran's I index identified the presence of spatial autocorrelation for incident locations, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness. The majority of cases were recorded in highly populated areas and a relationship was observed between population density and dengue cases. Temporal analysis demonstrated that cases mostly occurred from October to January, during the rainy season. Lower average temperatures, higher precipitation and a lower sea surface temperature appear to be related to an increase in dengue cases. This effect has a direct link to La Niña episodes, which is the cooling...