West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers

作者：Lu Lu, Feifei Zhang, Bas B. Oude Munnink, Emmanuelle Münger, Reina S. Sikkema, Styliani Pappa, Katerina Tsioka, Alessandro Sinigaglia, Emanuela Dal Molin, Barbara Shih, Anne Günther, Anne Pohlmann, Ute Ziegler, Martin Beer, Rachel A. Taylor, Frederic Bartumeus, Mark Woolhouse, Frank M. Aarestrup, Luisa Barzon, Anna Papa, Samantha Lycett, Marion Koopmans · 发表于：PLoS Pathogens · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1371/journal.ppat.1011880 · 被引用次数：98 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Dengue and Mosquito Control Research、vaccines and immunoinformatics approaches

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities. METHODS: We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time. FINDINGS: Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the ...