Modeling Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk for Mountain Railway Alignment Optimization

作者：Taoran Song, Hao Pu, T.Y. Yang, Paul Schonfeld, Xinjie Wan, Wei Li, Zhihui Zhu, Hong Zhang, Jianping Hu · 发表于：ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part A Civil Engineering · 年份：2024 · DOI：10.1061/ajrua6.rueng-1179 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Geotechnical Engineering and Analysis、Railway Engineering and Dynamics、Landslides and related hazards

Construction investment and geological risk of a railway project are significantly influenced by the alignment design. Thus, for railways in earthquake-prone regions, the seismic risks should be addressed at the alignment decision-making stage. However, this is a challenging problem that should balance cost and risk appropriately. Especially in mountainous regions, besides direct ground shaking, earthquake-induced landslides greatly threaten railways’ construction and operation. Unfortunately, no existing studies in this field have accounted for that factor. In this paper, a novel potential earthquake-induced landslide risk model is proposed for mountain railway alignment optimization. In this model, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, critical acceleration computation, and landslide displacement estimation are first integrated. Together with the consideration of railway structures’ damage states, damage ratios, and restoration functions, the direct and indirect monetary losses caused by landslides to railways with specified alignments are evaluated. Then, the aforementioned analyses are incorporated into a previous cost-risk model and solved with a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Finally, the model’s effectiveness is tested in a complex railway example. It is found that the studied region is landslide prone, and railway structures, especially bridges, are vulnerable to landslides. Also, a biobjective analysis reveals the alignments can be more sensitive to ...