Does the COVID-19 outbreak affect dynamic co-movement among the stock markets of China, Japan, and the USA?

作者：Haoyu Li · 发表于：International Journal of Financial Engineering · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1142/s2424786323500639 · 研究领域：COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts、Market Dynamics and Volatility、COVID-19 impact on air quality

The research examines the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the dynamic co-movement of the stock markets of China, Japan, and the USA using a VAR model and a DCC-GJR-GARCH model. Especially, this study focuses on during and preceding the COVID period. This study data period extends from 1 January 2016 to 31 April 2022. The results demonstrate that COVID-19’s effect increases stock market volatility. Meanwhile, the VAR model revealed that the USA’s exogeneity was greater during COVID-19. In addition, the pre-crisis Granger Causality between China–USA and Japan–China is substantially higher than during the crisis. The findings of DCC-GJR-GARCH indicate the presence of volatility clustering in each of the stock markets. Moreover, the results suggest that the time-varying correlations between China and the USA during the pre-COVID period are greater than during the COVID period. The study’s findings highlight that investors attempting to increase investment diversification opportunities worldwide should always consider dynamic co-movement in different periods to maximize returns and minimize risk.