Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia: Evidence from rural Tajikistan

作者：Yuhan Zhao, Chen Qian, Yumei Zhang, Xiande Li, Kamiljon T. Akramov · 发表于：Journal of Integrative Agriculture · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.jia.2023.12.001 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets、Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations、Agricultural risk and resilience

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia. We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan on the one hand, and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic on the other. Based on a large household survey data set from Tajikistan, we estimate the expenditure, income, and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model, and then we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock. There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups, with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods, such as meat, fruit, eggs, and milk in rural Tajik households. Moreover, our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices have significant negative effect on food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.