Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats

作者：Annette E. Evans, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Evelyn M. Beaury, Peder Engelstad, N Teich, Jillian LaRoe, Bethany A. Bradley · 发表于：Diversity and Distributions · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1111/ddi.13787 · 被引用次数：21 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Plant and animal studies

Abstract Aim Preventing the spread of range‐shifting invasive species is a top priority for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Invasive plants become abundant and cause negative impacts in only a fraction of their introduced ranges, yet projections of invasion risk are almost exclusively derived from models built using all non‐native occurrences and neglect abundance information. Location Eastern USA. Methods We compiled abundance records for 144 invasive plant species from five major growth forms. We fit over 600 species distribution models based on occurrences of abundant plant populations, thus projecting which areas in the eastern United States (U.S.) will be most susceptible to invasion under current and +2°C climate change. Results We identified current invasive plant hotspots in the Great Lakes region, mid‐Atlantic region, and along the northeast coast of Florida and Georgia, each climatically suitable for abundant populations of over 30 invasive plant species. Under a +2°C climate change scenario, hotspots will shift an average of 213 km, predominantly towards the northeast U.S., where some areas are projected to become suitable for up to 21 new invasive plant species. Range shifting species could exacerbate impacts of up to 40 invasive species projected to sustain populations within existing hotspots. On the other hand, within the eastern U.S., 62% of species will experience decreased suitability for abundant populations with climate change. This trend is cons...