Interpretable prediction of 3-year all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure based on machine learning

作者：Chenggong Xu, Hongxia Li, Jianping Yang, Yunzhu Peng, Hongyan Cai, Jing Zhou, Wen Gu, Lixing Chen · 发表于：BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s12911-023-02371-5 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare、Heart Failure Treatment and Management、Machine Learning in Healthcare

BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to assess the effectiveness of machine learning models and create an interpretable machine learning model that adequately explained 3-year all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure. METHODS: The data in this paper were selected from patients with chronic heart failure who were hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, from 2017 to 2019 with cardiac function class III-IV. The dataset was explored using six different machine learning models, including logistic regression, naive Bayes, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boost, K-nearest neighbor, and decision tree. Finally, interpretable methods based on machine learning, such as SHAP value, permutation importance, and partial dependence plots, were used to estimate the 3-year all-cause mortality risk and produce individual interpretations of the model's conclusions. RESULT: In this paper, random forest was identified as the optimal aools lgorithm for this dataset. We also incorporated relevant machine learning interpretable tand techniques to improve disease prognosis, including permutation importance, PDP plots and SHAP values for analysis. From this study, we can see that the number of hospitalizations, age, glomerular filtration rate, BNP, NYHA cardiac function classification, lymphocyte absolute value, serum albumin, hemoglobin, total cholesterol, pulmonary artery systolic pressure and so on were important for providing an opt...