A New Socio-Hydrology System Based on System Dynamics and a SWAT-MODFLOW Coupling Model for Solving Water Resource Management in Nanchang City, China

作者：Zhihui Deng, Qingshan Ma, Jia Zhang, Qingda Feng, Zhaoxuan Niu, Guilin Zhu, Xianpeng Jin, Meijing Chen, Honghan Chen · 发表于：Sustainability · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3390/su152216079 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water Resources and Sustainability

To address the issue of seasonal water resource shortages in Nanchang City, a multi-system coupling socio-hydrology simulation method was proposed. This approach involves dynamically integrating a centralized socio-economic model with a distributed surface water groundwater numerical model to explore the intricate relationships between the socio-economic system, the surface water–groundwater integrated system, and the outcomes related to seasonal water resource shortages. Taking Nanchang City as an example, this study conducted research on the water resource supply and demand balance, as well as the groundwater emergency supply, using the multi-system coupling model. Three scenarios were established: status quo, developing, and water-saving. The results show that with the increasing total water demand of social and economic development, the severity of the water resource shortage will be most pronounced in 2030. The minimum water resources supply and demand ratios for the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios are projected to be 0.68, 0.52, and 0.77, respectively. To meet residents’ water needs during drought conditions, emergency groundwater supply efforts are investigated. According to the simulation results, groundwater emergency supply would increase the total population by 24.0 thousand, 49.4 thousand, and 11.2 thousand people, respectively, in the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios. In the water-saving scenario, the Youkou and Xiebu water so...