Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

作者：Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Raf E. V. Jansen, Daniel Itzamna Avila-Ortega, Lan Wang‐Erlandsson, Jonathan F. Donges, Henrik Österblom, Per Olsson, Magnus Nyström, Steven J. Lade, Thomas P. Hahn, Carl Folke, Garry Peterson, Anne‐Sophie Crépin · 发表于：Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1098/rstb.2022.0261 · 被引用次数：95 · 研究领域：Innovation, Sustainability, Human-Machine Systems、Global Energy and Sustainability Research、Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.