Coupling RESI with Multi-Scenario LULC Simulation and Spatiotemporal Variability Analysis: An Ecological Spatial Constraint Approach

作者：Qin Jiang, Zhengtao Shi, Qiaoling Liang, Guangxiong He, Lei Zhao, He Li · 发表于：Sustainability · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3390/su152215757 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Ecology, Conservation, and Geographical Studies

Southwest China’s arid river valleys represent ecologically vulnerable areas with intense human activity. Understanding the historical changes in LULC and land cover and projecting the impacts of various development scenarios on future LULC have become crucial for regional spatial information management and territorial spatial planning. This research analyzes the land-use changes in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley over a 30-year span from 1990 to 2020. Building upon the PLUS model, we established a coupled habitat quality spatial and multi-scenario land-use simulation model. Four development scenarios were proposed: natural progression, economic development, ecological conservation, and balanced development. We conducted simulations and evaluations of land-use in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley for 2030 using the PLUS mode, assessing the sustainability of future development scenarios under varying ecological constraints. During the simulation, three distinct RESI regions were employed as restricted development zones, integrating the three ecological constraints with the four simulation scenarios. We introduced a novel approach based on ecological environmental quality as the ecological constraint, providing a scientific reference for sustainable development in ecologically vulnerable areas. The results indicate that under ecological conservation scenarios with high-to-low RESI constraints, the ecological environment is superior to the other three scenarios. The results show the followi...