Changing trends in the global burden of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 and predicted levels in 25 years

作者：Yang Wu, Lu Wang, Mengjun Tao, Huiru Cao, Hui Yuan, Mingquan Ye, Xingui Chen, Kai Wang, Chunyan Zhu · 发表于：Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1017/s2045796023000756 · 被引用次数：197 · 研究领域：Mental Health Treatment and Access、Employment and Welfare Studies、Suicide and Self-Harm Studies

AIMS: The burden of mental disorders is increasing worldwide, thus, affecting society and healthcare systems. This study investigated the independent influences of age, period and cohort on the global prevalence of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019; compared them by sex; and predicted the future burden of mental disorders in the next 25 years. METHODS: The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of mental disorders worldwide was analysed according to the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The incidence and mortality trends of mental disorders from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated through joinpoint regression analysis. The influences of age, period and cohort on the incidence of mental disorders were evaluated with an age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the sex-specific age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate decreased slightly. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1990 to 2019 indicated four turning points in the male DALY rate and five turning points in the female DALY rate. In analysis of age effects, the relative risk (RR) of incidence and the DALY rate in mental disorders in men and women generally showed an inverted U-shaped pattern with increasing age. In analysis of period effects, the incidence of mental disorders increased gradually over time, and showed a sub-peak in 2004 (RR, 1.006 for males; 95% CI, 1.000-1.012; 1.002 for women, 0.997-1.008). Analysis of cohort effects showed t...