Impact of future climate warming on soil organic carbon stocks in Inner Mongolia, China

作者：Shuai Wang, Xingyu Zhang, Kabindra Adhikari, Zicheng Wang, Di Shi, Xinxin Jin, Fengkui Qian · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111208 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics、Soil Geostatistics and Mapping、Soil erosion and sediment transport

Accurate assessment on temporal and spatial changes in soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS) is essential for evaluating the potential of soil carbon sequestration and formulating effective strategies to mitigate climate change. While most SOCS studies have focused on topsoil, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the vertical distribution of SOCS within soil profiles. Furthermore, the key environmental variables influencing deep SOCS are still not fully comprehended. In this study, we employed an integrated approach combining equal-area spline function, boosted regression trees model (BRT), and the space-for-time substitution method to accurately model the three-dimensional distribution of SOCS in response to climate warming in Inner Mongolia, China. A total of 12 environmental variables (generated from climate, topography, biological, and soil property factor) and 208 soil profile data were selected to construct the model. The 10-fold cross-validation technique was employed to assess the predictive performance of the BRT model for soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS) at various depths, using four accuracy validation indicators: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (LCCC). The results demonstrated the BRT model accurately predicted SOCS with higher LCCC and R2 values, as well as lower RMSE and MAE values. The predicted map revealed higher SOCS concentration ...