Quantifying the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff based on the budyko framework in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

作者：Pingping Feng, Yilinuer Alifujiang, Jilili Abuduwaili, Na Lü, Ying Jiang · 发表于：Frontiers in Earth Science · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3389/feart.2023.1251759 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Climate variability and models

Identifying and quantifying the drivers of runoff (R) variability is fundamental to our understanding of the hydrologic cycle and necessary for decision makers to manage water resources. Climate variables and vegetation are the main factors influencing the R. However, the effects of climate and vegetation changes on R are still poorly understood, especially in arid regions with limited water resources. This study quantifies the contribution of precipitation (PRE), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to R in Lake Issyk-Kul Basin (LIKB) dryland Central Asia by using the Budyko model. The results showed that R, PRE, and ET0 decreased from 2000 to 2020, while the NDVI and underlying parameter (ω) showed a slightly increasing trend. By using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) statistical approach, divided the R series into a baseline period (2000–2010) and a change period (2011–2020) based on the breakthrough point (2011). In the baseline period, R showed a decreasing trend, while in the change period, R showed an increasing trend of 1.8 mm/yr. The sensitivity analysis shows that a 1 mm increase in PRE results in a 0.48 mm increase in R (sensitivity coefficient to R is 0.48). Conversely, a 1 mm increase in ET0 (sensitivity coefficient to R of −0.03) and a 1 unit increase in NDVI (sensitivity coefficient to R of −343.31) lead to R decreasing by 0.03 and 343.31 mm, respectively. The relative contributions of PRE, ET0 and NDVI were 33.98%, −3.17%...