Earlier springs increase goose breeding propensity and nesting success at Arctic but not at temperate latitudes

作者：Michiel P. Boom, Kees H. T. Schreven, Nelleke H. Buitendijk, Sander Moonen, Bart A. Nolet, Götz Eichhorn, Henk P. van der Jeugd, Thomas K. Lameris · 发表于：Journal of Animal Ecology · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1111/1365-2656.14020 · 被引用次数：17 · 研究领域：Avian ecology and behavior、Climate variability and models、Species Distribution and Climate Change

Intermittent breeding is an important tactic in long-lived species that trade off survival and reproduction to maximize lifetime reproductive success. When breeding conditions are unfavourable, individuals are expected to skip reproduction to ensure their own survival. Breeding propensity (i.e. the probability for a mature female to breed in a given year) is an essential parameter in determining reproductive output and population dynamics, but is not often studied in birds because it is difficult to obtain unbiased estimates. Breeding conditions are especially variable at high latitudes, potentially resulting in a large effect on breeding propensity of Arctic-breeding migratory birds, such as geese. With a novel approach, we used GPS-tracking data to determine nest locations, breeding propensity and nesting success of barnacle geese, and studied how these varied with breeding latitude and timing of arrival on the breeding grounds relative to local onset of spring. Onset of spring at the breeding grounds was a better predictor of breeding propensity and nesting success than relative timing of arrival. At Arctic latitudes (>66° N), breeding propensity decreased from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.65-0.97) in early springs to 0.22 (95% CI: 0.06-0.55) in late springs, while at temperate latitudes, it varied between 0.75 (95% CI: 0.38-0.93) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.41-0.99) regardless of spring phenology. Nesting success followed a similar pattern and was lower in later springs at Arctic latitudes, b...