Exploring the nexus of climate variability, population dynamics, and maize production in Togo: Implications for global warming and food security

作者：Kossivi Fabrice Dossa, Yann Emmanuel Miassi · 发表于：Farming System · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.farsys.2023.100053 · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact、Climate change impacts on agriculture、Energy and Environment Impacts

Maize, which serves as the primary staple crop in Togo, plays a crucial role in supporting rural communities and ensuring food security. Comprehending the complex relationship between Togo's maize production, population dynamics, and climate variability is crucial for mitigating the impacts of global warming and guaranteeing long-term food security. The present study examines the climate patterns and their impact on maize cultivation in Togo for the period spanning from 1990 to 2020. During this temporal interval, significant variations were seen in important climate indices. The levels of rainfall and the frequency of wet days exhibited notable fluctuations, whereas the temperature and concentrations of air pollutants, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), had a persistent rising trajectory. The recorded temperature exhibited an increase from 27 °C in 1990 to 29 °C in 2020. The levels of CO2 emissions had a substantial increase from 1000 kt in 1990 to an estimated 2500 kt in 2020. Similarly, the emissions of N2O witnessed a notable rise of more than 800 kt over the same time frame. Using time series analysis, we examined the temporal characteristics and employed ARIMA predictive models to project maize production over the upcoming decade, considering the gradual decrease in rural population density. The studies highlight the significant implications of global warming on a worldwide scale, exerting a profound impact on the Earth. The agriculture sector, s...