Risk transboundary transmission areas and driving factors of brucellosis along the borders between China and Mongolia

作者：Shan Gao, Ruihao Peng, Zan Zeng, Jingbo Zhai, Mingwei Yang, Xinrui Liu, Tumenjargal Sharav, Zeliang Chen · 发表于：Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102648 · 被引用次数：15 · 研究领域：Brucella: diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment、Zoonotic diseases and public health、Parasitic Diseases Research and Treatment

OBJECTIVE: Brucellosis is a common and neglected zoonotic infectious disease worldwide caused by Brucella. However, transboundary transmissions among countries, particularly those with high incidences, are seldom investigated. In the present study, by taking China and Mongolia as examples, we aim to identify transboundary transmission risk and driving factors of brucellosis along borders. METHODS: 167 brucellosis outbreak locations along the border between China and Mongolia were collected. Wildlife distribution and cross-border activities were mapped. Maximum entropy approach modeling was conducted to predict the potential risk of prevalence of brucellosis with meteorological factors, geographical environment, economic development, living habits et al. The accuracy of the models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), Kappa test, and correctly classified instances (CCI). RESULTS: The spatial model performed excellent predictive performance with the predictor variables of soils, pastures, goat density, mean precipitation of the wettest month, temperature seasonality, and population density, which with the contribution and permutation important in 27.2 %, 31.9; 23.3 %, 6.8; 18.0 %, 17.2; 11.2 %, 18.1; 10. 3 %, 15.2; 10.0 %, 10.8. The calculated AUC, SD, Kappa, and CCI are 0.870, 0.001, 0.882, and 0.883, respectively. The distribution map of brucellosis showed high-risk areas along the borders. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified hi...