Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

作者：Zhengyu Yang, Wenzhong Huang, Joanne E. McKenzie, Rongbin Xu, Pei Yu, Tingting Ye, Bo Wen, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Shilu Tong, Éric Lavigne, Joana Madureira, Jan Kyselý, Yuming Guo, Shanshan Li · 发表于：BMJ · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1136/bmj-2023-075081 · 被引用次数：76 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Climate Change and Health Impacts、Disaster Response and Management

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. DESIGN: Time series study. SETTING: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. PARTICIPANTS: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. RESULTS: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 day...