Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Rachel Black, Marita Cross, Lydia M Haile, Garland T Culbreth, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Hailey Hagins, Jacek A Kopec, Peter Brooks, Anthony D. Woolf, Kanyin Liane Ong, Deborah Kopansky-Giles, Karsten E Dreinhoefer, Neil Betteridge, Amirali Aali, Mitra Abbasifard, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Ame Mehadi Abdurehman, Aidin Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Ahmed Abu‐Zaid, Kidist Adamu, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Miracle Ayomikun Adesina, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Muhammad U. Afzal, Ayman Ahmed, Janardhana P Aithala, Meisam Akhlaghdoust, Astawus Alemayehu, Saba Alvand, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Hubert Amu, Benny Antony, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Judie Arulappan, Tahira Ashraf, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Sina Azadnajafabad, Alaa Badawi, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Atif Amin Baig, Asaminew Birhanu Balta, Maciej Banach, Palash Chandra Banik, Amadou Barrow, Azadeh Bashiri, Lindsay Bearne, Alehegn Bekele, Isabela M. Benseñor, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja, Saeid Bitaraf, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, João Silva Botelho, Andrew M. Briggs, Rachelle Buchbinder, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Kaleb Coberly, Natália Martins, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Katie de Luca, Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn, Gashaw Dessie, Meghnath Dhimal, Lankamo Ena Digesa, Mengistie Diress, Paul Narh Doku, Hisham Atan Edinur, Michael Ekholuenetale, Muhammed Elhadi, Yasser M. El‐Sherbiny, Farshid Etaee, Rana Ezzeddini, Shahriar Faghani, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Takeshi Fukumoto, Balasankar Ganesan, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Urge Gerema, Motuma Erena Getachew, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Tiffany K. Gill, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Rabih Halwani, Md. Abdul Hannan, Shafiul Haque, Netanja I. Harlianto, Mehdi Harorani, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Kamal Hezam, Catherine Hill, Yuta Hiraike, Nobuyuki Horita, Amir Human Hoveidaei, Alexander Kevin Hsiao, Evelyn Hsieh, Salman Hussain, Ivo Iavicoli, Irena Ilić, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Masao Iwagami, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Chinmay Jani, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Nitin Joseph, Vidya Kadashetti, Himal Kandel, Tesfaye K Kanko, Ibraheem M. Karaye, Himanshu Khajuria, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Javad Khanali, Moawiah Khatatbeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Mohammed Kuddus, Narinder Kumar, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Bagher Larijani, Stephen S Lim, Justin Lo, Vanessa Machado, Preetam Mahajan, Azeem Majeed, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Ahmad Azam Malik, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Elezebeth Mathews, José João Mendes, Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Tomislav Meštrović, Peyman Mirghaderi, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Ashraf Mohamadkhani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Md. Moniruzzaman, Ahmed Al Montasir, Getaneh Baye Mulu, Efrén Murillo‐Zamora, Christopher J L Murray, Ghulam Mustafa, Mohsen Naghavi, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Atta Abbas Naqvi, Zuhair S. Natto, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Subas Neupane, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, In‐Hwan Oh, Hassan Okati‐Aliabad, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Mayowa Owolabi, Kevin Pacheco‐Barrios, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Jay Patel, Aslam Pathan, Shrikant Pawar, Paolo Pedersini, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Ibrahim Qattea, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Vahid Rahmanian, Vahid Rashedi, Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, Salman Rawaf, Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia, Elrashdy M. Redwan, André M. N. Renzaho, Nazila Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Abanoub Riad, Aly M A Saad, Basema Saddik, Umar Saeed, Azam Safary, Maryam Sahebazzamani, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Harihar Sahoo, Amir Salek Farrokhi, Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib, Allen Seylani, Saeed Shahabi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Bereket Beyene Shashamo, Adithi Shetty, Jeevan K. Shetty, Mika Shigematsu, Velizar Shivarov, Parnian Shobeiri, Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat, Ehsan Sinaei, Ambrish Singh, Ambrish Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Surjit Singh, Md Shahjahan Siraj, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Helen Slater, Amanda Smith, Yonatan Solomon, Mohammad Sadegh Soltani‐Zangbar, Mohammad Tabish, Ker‐Kan Tan, Nathan Y Tat, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Samar Tharwat, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Biruk Shalmeno Tusa, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Pascual Valdéz, Rohollah Valizadeh, Siavash Vaziri, Stein Emil Vollset, Aimin Wu, Dereje Y Yada, Sisay Shewasinad Yehualashet, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Ismaeel Yunusa, Moein Zangiabadian, Iman Zare, Armin Zarrintan, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Mohammad Zoladl, Theo Vos, Lyn March · 发表于：The Lancet Rheumatology · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/s2665-9913(23)00211-4 · 被引用次数：652 · 研究领域：Rheumatoid Arthritis Research and Therapies、Musculoskeletal Disorders and Rehabilitation、Spondyloarthritis Studies and Treatments

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had ...